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Campaign Finance Reports! Again, for I know. Ready to share new things that are useful. You and your friends.At lunch the other day, a friend who recently returned to New York after living abroad for many years asked me what will happen if the federal debt ceiling is not raised before the official drop-dead date of Aug. 2.
What I said. It isn't outcome that the real about Campaign Finance Reports. You see this article for home elevators an individual want to know is Campaign Finance Reports.How is Expecting The Impossible And Denying The clear
I said pretty much what President Obama said at Wednesday's news conference, when he declared that the fallout from missing the deadline, and any resulting default on Treasury debt, would be "significant and unpredictable." But I was prepared to make two rock-solid forecasts:
Number one: Things that are impossible will not happen.
Number two: Things that are certain finally will.
I am not sure the president sees things the same way. There he was at the news conference, blasting away at "millionaires and billionaires, oil clubs and corporate jet owners" the way he did while the 2010 congressional campaign, and arguing that any "balanced" project to cut Washington's budget deficit and slow the growth of its yawning debt would have to contain the elimination of what he calls "tax breaks" for those favored groups.
This is the same president who agreed in December to a two-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for all taxpayers, along with those millionaires and billionaires, the clubs that fill our gas tanks, and any businesses that own their own aircraft. He agreed to that extension when his own party still had an splendid majority in the House of Representatives and a large margin in the Senate.
The reporters at the news seminar asked a lot of good questions (some of which the president, for his own political convenience, bluntly refused to answer), but the one I would have asked is: "Mr. President, if you couldn't get the taxes you wanted through a Congress that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid led with splendid majorities, why do you think any such thing is inherent now? As a follow-up question, can you clarify why you expect something impossible to happen?"
The president did retort that there will have to be changes in the federal government's big entitlement programs, though he did not say what those changes might be. This modest concession to reality pays homage to both of my predictions. The entitlement troika of Medicare, Medicaid and communal protection cannot control indefinitely under their current designs. This makes the status quo impossible to sustain, and therefore makes convert inevitable. Republicans have been saying this for years; increasingly, Democrats and groups aligned with them are agreeing that convert must come, though not necessarily in the ways most Republicans want.
No less an admirer of the status quo than the group at one time known as the American association of Retired Persons has finally conceded the inevitability of changing communal Security. The group's policy chief, John Rother, acknowledged as much in mid-June, though the club has tried to spin this reversal as anyone other than a convert in its position.
Once we get past the denial stage, we can have a serious seminar about the types and the magnitude of changes we are going to see. For communal Security, the recipe inevitably will involve some serious tinkering with retirement's key variables: the amounts being paid, the age at which population can fetch payments, the tax rates that are used to fund the payments, and the type and number of revenue that is branch to tax to fund the payments.
Such adjustments are inevitable, because virtually everyone agrees that communal protection retirement payments will not disappear for population who now receive them or for those who expect to receive them in the near future.
What about a major convert to the program's structure, such as a conversion from government-guaranteed payments for life to, say, a theory based on conspiratorially owned accounts in which each generation will pay for its own retirement rather than rely on its children and grandchildren?
Such a convert would, in my opinion, be wise and equitable, but it is not inevitable. It remains an open inquire whether communal protection will someday be truly self-sustaining, rather than an unfunded promise that each generation foists upon its successor.
There are similar problems with Medicare, whose funding mechanism is connected to communal Security's, and Medicaid, in which the federal government sets coverage standards but shares the costs of meeting those standards with states that, increasingly, find the costs unaffordable.
Some convert in those programs is inevitable, even if the exact changes called for by Republicans, such as Rep. Paul Ryan's proposal to turn Medicare into a government subsidy for seniors to buy secret medical insurance, are not.
Americans are hardly alone in calling for the impossible or denying the inevitable. Just this week, crowds demonstrated throughout Greece to protest austerity measures that the country had to enact in order to continue drawing on an overseas financial lifeline.
The alternative was a Greek default on its debt. Its government would have plainly run out of money. It would have likely been forced out of the euro currency zone (which might not even have survived a default); its banks would fail and its cheaper would collapse. Is this what those demonstrators wanted?
Certainly not. They were demanding the continuation of a world that no longer exists, one in which a nation that lied about the state of its finances had passage to cheap prestige from global lenders that enabled its citizens to live a life they could not afford. Such a life became impossible the diminutive the truth about Greece's finances became known, as it inevitably would. But that did not stop the Greek demonstrators from demanding the impossible.
The irony may be that Greek default itself is de facto inevitable. The country's accumulated debt is so large relative to its economy, and its long-term growth prospects are so poor, that it is very likely - probably certain - that not all the borrowed money will finally be paid back. The International Monetary Fund and the other European countries assisting Greece know this perfectly well. Their apparent hope is to prevent the certain long sufficient for the continent's banking theory and the global cheaper to best cope the fallout. Or maybe they are just denying the inevitability of the inevitable.
But the rules tell us that the impossible never happens and the certain always does. Greece's Parliament voted to enact the austerity measures around the same time that Obama started his news conference.
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